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Le Monde diplomatique ----------------------------------------------------- March 2000 LEADER Reform in Iran * by IGNACIO RAMONET <http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/2000/03/01leader> Translated by Ed Emery SUPPLIES HELD OVER A BARREL What future for the oil industry? by NICOLAS SARKIS The price of a barrel of oil has more than tripled in the space of a year, several times passing the $30 mark. The reason for the surge is the increase in energy needs consequent on growth and a deliberate cap placed on production by Opec, which on 1 April 1999 decided to stick at 22.98 million barrels a day (not including Iraq). To try and force Opec to turn the taps on fuller at the 27 March summit, President Bill Clinton has quite exceptionally threatened to draw on the United States' strategic reserves. If no agreement is reached between exporting countries and consumers, the oil market is likely to experience renewed shocks which, despite the West's reduced dependency, will dampen the nascent recovery. Translated by Malcolm Greenwood SOCIAL CRISIS, POLITICAL STALEMATE Why did Austria lurch to the right? by PAUL PASTEUR When Jörg Haider's Freedom Party joined the Austrian government on 3 February, it aroused heated emotions all round Europe. The reaction of the European governments - spectacular but short-lived - was followed by massive demonstrations in Vienna and other capitals. But opposing the far-right means getting a clear idea of the various forms it takes from one country to another and the reasons for its success. Translated by Derry Cook-Radmore Europe's new fascist order by JEAN-YVES CAMUS The far right has never entirely disappeared from the scene in Europe, witness current developments in Austria (see article by Paul Pasteur). Some movements, excluded from the electoral system as in Scandinavia or the United Kingdom for example, turn to terrorism, others exploit the blurring of distinctions between right and left which makes a nonsense of political representation. Thus the problem is not so much the resurgence of 'fascism' as the numbing effect on democracy of political and economic consensus. Translated by Barbara Wilson CAUGHT BETWEEN ARMY AND SEPARATISTS Indonesia faces dual assault by FRANÇOISE CAYRAC-BLANCHARD Since the fall of General Suharto, Indonesia has elected Abdurrahman Wahid, a democrat and a Muslim, as president and recognised the independence of East Timor. If he is to restore democracy, however, Wahid must reduce the role of the army which has had too much power for too long. His task is all the harder as he must urgently resolve two separatist conflicts in Aceh and Papua and deal with an explosive situation in the Moluccas. Translated by Malcolm Greenwood LESSONS OF WAR Another way for Kosovo? by NOAM CHOMSKY On the night of 24-25 March 1999 Nato unleashed an air attack on Yugoslavia that lasted for 78 days. How should the operation be viewed one year on? The suffering of the Kosovar Albanians has ended and the refugees have returned to their homes - more often than not destroyed - but Kosovo's Serbs and Gypsies have in turn been forced to leave. Mitrovica, the last great multiethnic city, is the scene of fearsome clashes. And Slobodan Milosevic is still in power in Belgrade. Such a failure means the real nature of this war needs to be examined. The "genocide" of the Kosovar Albanians had to be stopped. But was it not a question of the United States using Nato to imposing its grip on the Balkans? Which would explain why the allies stubbornly refused any diplomatic solution. Original text in English Media and disinformation by SERGE HALIMI and DOMINIQUE VIDAL For over ten years Kosovo bore the brunt of Belgrade's policy of apartheid. Then in 1998 repression of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) was brutally stepped up. However was this really, as the flood of refugees suggested, a case of genocide that only Western intervention could stop? A year later this justification for the war waged by Nato has lost a great deal of its credibility, as has the supposedly "exemplary" media coverage of the conflict. The enquiries by the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY), by European and international bodies, and by a number of journalists, show a radically different train of events. Nor is the story over, for the Serbs and Gypsies in Kosovo are now the targets of "counter ethnic cleansing". Translated by Harry Forster ELECTIONS TO THE SOUND OF WAR Russia seeks a 'new deal' * by JEAN RADVANYI If Vladimir Putin is elected president of the Russian Federation on 26 March, he will largely owe his victory to the war in Chechnya, with its appalling catalogue of massacres, destruction, pillage and torture. But Izvestia says that "Putin, man of iron" also likes to think of himself as "Vladimir Vladimirovitch Roosevelt". Many questions surround the true programme of Boris Yeltsin's successor. At any rate he will have to take account of the state of the country he has inherited as acting president. <http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/2000/03/08russia> Translated by Julie Stoker ECONOMIC CRISIS CRIPPLES THE POOR Eruptions in Ecuador by JOSÉ MARÍA TORTOSA By dollarising the economy and making the most disadvantaged sections of the population pay for the economic crisis, President Jamil Mahuad provoked a coup led by several dozen progressive officers, the powerful indigenous movement and a few opposition politicians. Removed from office on 21 January, he was replaced by his vice-president, Gustavo Noboa, who intends to pursue the same policy. The army high command and heavy United States pressure lie behind this surprising outcome - and the sidelining of the National Salvation Junta born of the uprising. Translated by Malcolm Greenwood THE NAZARETH MOSQUE DEBACLE Growing force of Israel's Islamists by JOSEPH ALGAZY When the Pope visits Nazareth on 25 March he will see the mosque which for two years has symbolised the Islamists' growing influence in Israel's political and religious life. They are represented in almost all the municipal councils in Arab districts and their pragmatic wing has two members in the Knesset. Yet militants from their radical wing were charged with armed attacks inside Israel last September. In spite of these internal divisions the Islamists are now the main force among Israel's Arab minority - displacing the communists and nationalists. As elsewhere in the Middle East, this comes from their social and political agenda as much as their religious one. Translated by Wendy Kristianasen THE POGROM AT EL EJIDO Spanish apartheid, plastic-wrapped * by VICTOR ANGEL LLUCH The spectacular development of greenhouse crops in Andalucia relies on exploiting a mainly Moroccan immigrant community and denying them a simple claim to social rights. Pushed out to the outskirts of towns, despised for the wretchedness in which they are forced to live, some of them are reacting with anti-social behaviour - which in turn arouses fear. It is this state of affairs, not just the murder of a Spanish woman by a young, mentally-disturbed North African, that lies behind the wave of racist violence that engulfed El Ejido for three days in early February. <http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/2000/03/11spain> Translated by Derry Cook-Radmore BACK PAGE Blue gold of the 21st century by RICCARDO PETRELLA Between 17 and 22 March the second World Water Forum will be meeting in the Hague, organised by the Dutch government on the basis of an initiative by the World Water Council (WWC), and including an international ministerial conference. Such international initiatives are at least a start, since those in charge of the world's water believe that water has to be treated as an economic commodity. They argue that this is the only effective way to combat shortages and rapidly rising prices. Water has become expensive, and it will be even more expensive in the future, which will make it the "blue gold" of the 21st century. To counter this grassroots mobilisation is urgently needed. <http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/en/2000/03/12water> Translated by Ed Emery English language editorial director: Wendy Kristianasen _________________________________________________________________ (*) Star-marked articles are available to every reader. Other articles are available to paid subscribers only. Yearly subscription fee: 24 US $ (Institutions 48 US $). 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