[Nettime-bold] Re: <nettime> "The global economy driven by informationtechnology clearly benefits the United States"

[Stefan Wray <swray@io.com>]

Geert et al,

Always keep this in mind.

The U.S. government, with its military and intelligence branches, is the
world's largest terrorist organization.

Never forget that.

- Stefan Wray
U.S. subject under a George W. Bush regime.
Waiting for the empire to collapse.



At 06:43 PM 12/22/00 +1100, geert lovink wrote:
>(an interesting report about the world in 2015, written for the US
>intelligence
>community)
>
>     http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A19618-2000Dec17.html
>
> Monday, December 18, 2000; Page A03
>
>     Global Threats Against U.S. Will Rise, Report Predicts
>
>      By Vernon Loeb
>      Washington Post Staff Writer
>
> The risk of a missile attack against the United States involving
> chemical, biological or nuclear warheads is greater today than during
> most of the Cold War and will continue to grow in the next 15 years,
> according to a new global threat assessment by the National Intelligence
> Council.
>
> The report, scheduled for release today, also concludes that terrorist
> attacks against the United States through 2015 "will become increasingly
> sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties. We expect the
> trend toward greater lethality . . . to continue."
>
> Nevertheless, the United States will remain "unparalleled" in its
> economic, technological, military and diplomatic influence by 2015, the
> report states, remaining in "the vanguard of the technological revolution
> from information to biotechnology and beyond."
>
> The 68-page document, "Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the Future
> with Nongovernmental Experts," represents an attempt by the U.S.
> intelligence community to look beyond its secret sources and involve
> academia and the private sector in forecasting world trends over the next
> decade and a half.
>
> The 15-member NIC is based at CIA headquarters under Director of Central
> Intelligence George J. Tenet and focuses on broad strategic assessments.
>
> "This is the most we have done with outside engagement," NIC Chairman
> John Gannon said in an interview. "When you get into issues like natural
> resources, demographics, science and technology, we really had to depend
> upon a lot of expertise out there."
>
> Gannon said the combined thinking of outside experts and U.S.
> intelligence has left him generally optimistic about the next 15 years,
> despite what the report identifies as key uncertainties -- including
> China, Russia, the Middle East, Japan and India.
>
> "The United States is going to be in a very strong position in 2015,"
> Gannon said. "The global economy driven by information technology clearly
> benefits the United States. The major challenge is how you manage the
> downside of globalization -- how do we deal with the countries that
> feel they're being left behind, particularly in regions of the world like
> the Middle East."
>
> A robust global economy coupled with greater international cooperation
> could reduce armed conflict and help alleviate the effects of population
> growth, poverty and water shortages by 2015, the study says.
>
> But in a section that presents alternative scenarios, the study says it
> is also possible that globalization could divide the world into haves and
> have-nots, fueling "frustrated expectations, inequities, and heightened
> communal tensions" while triggering the spread of organized crime and
> weapons of mass destruction.
>
> "The networked global economy will be driven by rapid and largely
> unrestricted flows of information, ideas, cultural values, capital, goods
> and services, and people," the report concludes. "In contrast to the
> Industrial Revolution, the process of globalization is more compressed.
> Its evolution will be rocky, marked by chronic financial volatility and a
> widening economic divide."
>
> Developed in the past 15 months at a series of conferences held by
> universities, corporations and think tanks, the report is most
> provocative in its inclusion of eight "significant discontinuities" that
> the experts considered unlikely, but possible. Among them:
>
> A "de facto geo-strategic alliance" between China, Russia and India to
> counterbalance U.S. influence.
>
> A collapse in the U.S.-European alliance as a result of trade disputes,
> political differences and conflict over how to handle global security
> issues.
>
> Formation of an international terrorist coalition with "diverse
> anti-Western objectives" and access to chemical, biological and even
> nuclear weapons.
>
> Serious upheaval in the Middle East, caused by deteriorating standards of
> living in major Arab nations and a failure by Israel and the Palestinians
> to reach a peace accord.
>
> Far more likely is a "cold peace" between Israel and a new Palestinian
> state, said the experts, who also predict that Japan's economic influence
> will wane and that Russia will struggle on virtually all fronts as it
> drifts toward authoritarianism.
>
> In stark demographic terms, the report paints what is in many ways a
> distressing portrait of planet earth in 2015, with the world's population
> having surged from 6.1 billion people today to 7.2 billion. Ninety-five
> percent of the growth will be in developing nations, with nearly all of
> that occurring in urban areas, the report says. The population of
> mega-cities larger than 10 million will double to 400 million.
>
> "Divergent demographic trends, the globalization of labor markets, and
> political instability and conflict will fuel a dramatic increase in the
> global movement of people through 2015," the report says.
>
> "Legal and illegal migrants now account for more than 15 percent of the
> population in more than 50 countries. These numbers will grow
> substantially and will increase social and political tension and perhaps
> alter national identities even as they contribute to demographic and
> economic dynamism."
>
> Food supplies will be adequate to feed the world's population, though
> famine will persist because of politics, war and poor distribution
> systems, the report says. Energy demands will increase by 50 percent, but
> supplies will be sufficient, with 80 percent of the world's oil and 95
> percent of its natural gas still in the ground untapped.
>
> Water supplies will be far more problematic, with 3 billion people living
> in "water-stressed" countries, mostly in Africa, the Middle East, South
> Asia and northern China. Because more than 30 of the world's 191 nations
> receive more than a third of their water from outside their borders,
> water shortages could trigger conflict among states, the report says.
>
> The report is perhaps most dire in its predictions about the spread of
> terrorism aimed at U.S. interests and the proliferation of weapons of
> mass destruction among terrorists and adversary states.
>
> The increased threat of a missile attack involving chemical, biological
> or even nuclear weapons is more likely to come from short- and
> medium-range missiles than intercontinental ballistic missiles. "The goal
> of the adversary would be to move the weapon within striking distance by
> using short- and medium-range missiles deployed on surface ships or
> covert missions using military special operations forces or state
> intelligence services," the report says.
>
> The report also predicts that chemical and biological threats to the
> United States will increase. "Some terrorists or insurgents will attempt
> to use such weapons against U.S. interests -- against the United
> States itself, its forces or facilities overseas, or its allies."
>
> In assessing the potential for future conflict, the report focuses on
> China as a growing global power in military and economic terms.
>
> "Some projections indicate that Chinese power will rise because of the
> growth of its economic and military capabilities," the report says.
> "Other projections indicate that the array of political, social, and
> economic pressures will increasingly challenge the stability and
> legitimacy of the regime. Most assessments today argue that China will
> seek to avoid conflict in the region to promote stable economic growth
> and to ensure internal stability."
>
> Russia's future is much bleaker. "Besides a crumbling infrastructure,
> years of environmental neglect are taking a toll on the population, a
> toll made worse by such societal costs of transition as alcoholism,
> cardiac diseases, drugs, and a worsening health delivery system," the
> report says.
>
> "In macro economic terms Russia's [gross domestic product] probably has
> bottomed out. Russia, nevertheless, is still likely to fall short in its
> efforts to become fully integrated into the global financial and trading
> system by 2015," the report continues. "Even under a best case scenario
> of 5 percent annual economic growth, Russia would attain an economy less
> than one-fifth the size of that of the United States."
>
>
>
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