Re: <nettime> US to become 'net energy exporter'

[Eugen Leitl <eugen@leitl.org>]

On Fri, Jan 11, 2013 at 09:08:31AM +0100, Felix Stalder wrote:

> It's hard to wrap one's head around the number of possible
> implications this shift in energy extraction has. One thing seems

Or maybe not

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9751

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9748

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9744

> clear, oil/gas production will not peak any time soon. So neither

Au contraire, the peak was 2006. The curve
has been flat since.

> the breakdown of fossil fuel civilization is taking place, or will
> increased oil/gas prices drive the shift towards renewable energy
> sources.

Globally, renewable energy sources have a negligible 
substition rate. Humanity currently runs on 16 TW,
and is projected to require ~30 TW by 2050 (assuming
it doesn't contract or collapse before).

Assuming linear growth you need an annual substitution
rate of 1 TW/year, which translates to about 3 TWp
for solar photovoltaics, the only technology capable
of scaling. Total annual deployment rate is currently
~30 GW, so we're two orders of magnitude too low.

> So, things are likely to continue the way they are. Not really a
> sustainable path, isn't it.

We're still on track for the World3 limits to growth
scenario, which predicts peak population by around
2030. 

So it goes.



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