Re: <nettime> Why I have stopped reading about Brexit

If the past two years have demonstrated anything it is that the UK is a “parliamentary sovereignty” is a myth.

Despite her weak position we have witnessed the real power of the Prime Ministerial position, through the ability

to legislate and to control the parliamentary timetable has all served to demonstrate the power of the office of PM.

Parliament’s power is largely negative. It can block and sometimes amend but it cannot legislate. As the cliche goes “government

proposes and parliament disposes” (but can do no more). This is why May has been able to just carry on running down the clock.

despite the fact that there is no parliamentary majority for crashing out.

The PM can simply carry on pretending to negotiate while taking us to the brink so we will be forced to accept her rubbish deal.

All the talk of Parliament taking control has come to nothing as there was no obvious method of grabbing the steering wheel from May.

That is Until the Cooper/Letwin Bill that will come before the house on May’s return on Feb 27th.

The group behind the Cooper/Letwin are believed to be up to 10 ministers including cabinet ministers who will resign on mass

to back the bill. Which means there is a strong chance of getting this through the House of Commons thereby short circuiting

May’s “my way or the highway” “gun to your head” (choose your metaphor) strategy. What matters here is that what is proposed is a new

law that is designed to take power from the executive and re-locate it to the legisalture. This really is high noon because it is

technically the last point when law can be changed before the 29th. You can see this strategy outlined in Oliver Letwin’s speech

in yesterday’s debate where he talks about this as a historic moment when the natural order of the UK’s constitutional law is turned

on its head.. and in this case the Parliament will actually become the government and the cabinet.

https://www.conservativehome.com/video/2019/02/watch-letwin-the-commons-must-take-on-the-government-of-our-country-and-be-a-cabinet.html

Bearing in mind that Cooper is Yvette Cooper from the labour and Letwin is very senior Conservative what we could be seeing is the

beginings of a profound re-alignment of British politics. (that is even without the rumours swirling about Labour members on the brink

of resigning). How that will work in pracice is anybody’s guess but it looks like a government of national unity. Undercutting the leadership

of both parties. So Labour better clarify its own position in relationship to this possible outcome.

Of course it is quite possible that as with all the previous ‘high noon’ moments the remain lobby backs down and the ruthless May’s

Brexican Stand off strategy prevails.

So in summary Patrice although I agree that the Brexit Box Set has indeed somehow managed to be simultaneously boring and engrossing

in equal measure. But it could be that the final episode of series 1 could hold far more interesting twists and surprises that you have anticipated.

Best

David

On 14 Feb 2019, at 21:14, Patrice Riemens <patrice@xs4all.nl> wrote:

Aloha,

I was a Brexit addict. Till the day before yesterday. I used to spell the Guardian online and go thru all the vagaries of that great soap. But no longer. I might merely scan the headline, and may be even not.

I 'know' what is going to happen (even though you never can know). The Maybot is going to run the clock till March 27th, will probably not get her 'deal' (the same old one) passed, and Britain will leave the EU without an agreement. No problem for her since she will go down in history as the PM who has wrecked the no longer United Kingdom, but will have not split the Conservative party under her tenure. Which will end soon thereafter anyway, and will see the Conservative party split all the same.

Just as Labour will do, since Corbyn, who was doing a 'parcours sans fautes' as long as the un-negotiations between UK and EU were going on, but then cogently swerved out of the bend as the Maybot tired everyone out, and for exactly the same reason: fear of displeasing the more vociferous parts of his electorate, even though it's a minority, just as they are among the Tories. Now Corbyn's dream of what Le Monde Diplomatique termed 'a Brexit of the Left' lies in shambles, just as any hope of gaining a majority if a snap election is called (according to the latest surveys, Labour stands to lose 12 seats, and the Tories to gain 4 - looks like the Maybot's histrionic inertia pays ...) And oh yes, his party's gonna split all the same.

If ever a second referendum occurs - but it won't - my best guess is that England & Wales would vote to remain, though with a lesser margin than for Brexit in the first poll, and Scotland and N.Ireland will vote remain in even larger number than first. But for now you'd better bank on a second Scottish independence referendum, followed by then resumption of 'the Troubles', or the reunification of Ireland if it comes to the inevitable hard border.

So the chickens will have come to roost. What started, and remained, a uniquely English issue, and within that a purely Tory quarrel, will now leave all contenders f**** up as they deserve. And we in Europe will soldier on towards our next showdown: the European Elections in May.

Interesting times indeed.

Cheers to all, have a nice wee dram!
p+2D!

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